Snapshot of the Opportunity
The numbers below illustrate the enormous economic value at stake and the accelerating demand for accurate drag data. Each metric is linked to its primary source for verification.
Combined TAM
Space‑weather forecasting (~$2.75 B) and space‑situational‑awareness (~$4.23 B) markets together support a total opportunity of roughly $7 B by the early 2030s[3].
Orbit Uncertainty
Atmospheric drag is the largest source of uncertainty in LEO orbit determination—our real‑time measurements close this gap[4].
Verified Spend
Aggregated U.S. government contracts for space‑weather, radio‑occultation and space‑traffic services (2023–2025) exceed $317 M[16].
Forecast Horizon
Operators require 3–7 day drag forecasts for conjunction avoidance and maneuvers, and 5‑year forecasts to plan satellites[5].
Stakeholder Support
UK Met Office, AXA XL, Atrium Space Insurance and Airbus back missions to measure upper‑atmosphere density[6].
ESA Space Safety
ESA member states approved €955 M for the Space Safety programme (2025–2027)[7].
Insurance Claims
Insurers paid out $995 M in claims in 2023 while collecting only $557 M in premiums (~179% loss ratio)[9].
Storm Losses
A minor geomagnetic storm in Feb 2022 caused 38 newly launched satellites to burn up due to enhanced drag[10].
Market Landscape
Investments by government agencies and private firms show that orbital safety and space weather services already command hundreds of millions of dollars. The chart below contrasts current spending on space safety and situational awareness.
Note: bars are scaled relative to the ~$7 B projected TAM for visual comparison.
Demand Drivers & Pain Points
- Orbit uncertainty: Neutral‑density changes are the largest perturbation in LEO; operators require 3–7 day forecasts to avoid conjunctions and 5‑year forecasts to design satellites and meet de‑orbit rules[4][5].
- Traffic boom: The number of satellites may exceed 100 000 by 2030 and collision maneuvers are skyrocketing (Starlink executed ~144 000 collision‑avoidance maneuvers in six months)[2][15].
- Insurance & risk: Insurers paid nearly $1 B in claims in 2023 with a 179% loss ratio, driving an urgent need for independent environmental data to manage risk[9][12].
- Model & data gaps: Most users rely on empirical models from the 1970s–80s; NOAA currently provides no drag-specific alerts. Operators are calling for real‑time neutral‑density observations and better models[11][8].
- Stakeholder demand: The UK Met Office, AXA XL, Atrium Space Insurance and Airbus formally back missions to deliver direct neutral‑density data[6].
- Growing market: The combined market for space‑weather and SSA services is projected to reach ~$7 B by 2032, driven by heavy government and commercial investment[3][7][13][14].
Why Orbit Axiom?
Orbit Axiom Systems is pioneering a new data infrastructure layer for orbit. Our on‑orbit sensors directly measure thermospheric density and composition, enabling real‑time drag forecasts that models alone cannot provide. By integrating physics‑based measurements across the solar–terrestrial chain, we empower satellite operators to plan maneuvers, protect assets and reduce insurance costs.
Investing at the pre‑seed stage means contributing to a solution that will become integral to operating in space. We are ready to demonstrate the Atlas Grid prototype and secure early contracts, and we invite partners who share our vision for safer, more efficient orbital operations.
Sources
- World Economic Forum press release: analysis projecting the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
- Gulf News explainer: projections suggest the number of satellites could reach ~100 000 by 2030.
- Combined TAM sources: DataIntelo notes the global space‑weather forecast platform market reached about $1.42 B in 2024 and projects it to reach about $2.75 B by 2033 (≈8 % CAGR); Fortune Business Insights values the space‑situational awareness market at $2.03 B in 2024 and forecasts it will grow to $4.23 B by 2032, yielding a combined TAM around $7 B.
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: states that neutral‑density‑driven atmospheric drag is the largest source of uncertainty in LEO orbit determination.
- SWAG user needs survey (PDF): explains that changes in neutral density are the largest orbital perturbation; operators require 3–7 day forecasts for conjunction avoidance and maneuvers, and 5‑year forecasts for mission planning.
- ROARS mission concept (ESA PDF): notes that the UK Met Office, AXA XL, Atrium Space Insurance and Airbus formally support a mission to measure upper‑atmosphere density.
- ESA press release: Member States committed €955 M to the Space Safety programme for 2025–2027, an increase of about 30 %.
- Breaking Defense article: explains that the Space Force maintains two catalogs of space‑object data—a public catalog and a high‑accuracy database shared only with allies and partners—and notes that the Commerce Department will spend almost $59 M in FY 2024 on commercial SSA infrastructure and data services【567766818407754†L102-L149】.
- Via Satellite coverage of Slingshot’s insurance report: reports that space insurers collected about $557 M in premiums in 2023 but paid out $995 M in claims, resulting in a net loss of $438 M【717076976018232†L100-L106】.
- NOAA article on the February 2022 Starlink loss: details how a minor geomagnetic storm caused 38 of 49 newly launched Starlink satellites to burn up due to enhanced drag, confirming that high drag conditions reduced satellite stability and made orbit‑raising impossible【383536429713595†L128-L147】.
- SWAG user needs survey (PDF): notes that most users rely on heritage models and want real‑time neutral‑density observations and standardised inputs; NOAA currently lacks drag‑specific alerts.
- SWAG user needs survey (PDF): states that the FAA requires insurance for launches and participants emphasised that independent environmental measurements are extremely valuable for risk management and return on investment.
- PR Newswire press release: LeoLabs reported more than $50 M in 2024 contracts and achieved nearly 140 % revenue growth.
- Via Satellite article: Spire Global’s space‑data business generated about $110 M in revenue in 2024.
- Space.com article: notes that in the first half of 2025, SpaceX’s Starlink constellation performed a staggering 144 404 collision‑avoidance maneuvers to dodge debris and other spacecraft【226564302019582†L458-L461】.
- Aggregated contract sources: NOAA Space Weather Next contract — NASA awarded BAE Systems a delivery order valued at $230.6 M to build Space Weather Next spacecraft【370466044108037†L233-L240】; Radio Occultation Data Buy II contracts — NOAA awarded two RODB‑2 contracts with a total maximum value of $59.3 M【400011655309251†L135-L142】; and TraCSS system integrator contract — NOAA awarded Parsons a contract with a one‑year base value of $15.5 M and an optional year for a maximum of $26.9 M【208169290257805†L66-L68】.